tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4520343519564700704.post415741477905548006..comments2024-01-11T05:07:59.607-05:00Comments on Housing Perspectives (from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies): Fertility Rates and Age Structures – The Underpinnings of Replacement Fertility in the U.S.Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studieshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07404938012740019524noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4520343519564700704.post-42512925922447262772013-11-07T09:47:14.776-05:002013-11-07T09:47:14.776-05:00Demographers have not been very good at forecastin...Demographers have not been very good at forecasting fertility trends, having completely missed anticipating both the Baby Boom and Baby Bust. In looking forward from the recent sharp decline in fertility to below replacement – I, therefore, should be apprehensive about predicting whether we will be above or below a specific number fully six or sixteen years into the future. <br /><br />There are a couple of things I do know, however, that might embolden me to take the bets. First, fertility levels are inherently unstable and can go up or down depending on economic and social conditions. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is very sensitive to period trends, and the delay in marriage and family formation during The Great Recession has caused a sharp decline in the TFR. Under improving economic conditions, young adults should feel more positive about starting a family. <br /><br />Second, if some childbearing was merely being postponed, not foregone, we could expect the TRF to rebound as older women and their partners feel more comfortable about the improving economic conditions. The Cohort Fertility Rate (CFR), or number of children ever born to these women when they actually move completely through their reproductive ages could well wind up below 2.1 (replacement). The TFR could still increase in the process as childbearing that historically took place when women were in their 20s takes place when they are in their 30s. The TFR will increase if rates for 20 year-olds stabilize at today’s low levels and rates for 30 year-olds increase. I believe that this is what will happen over the next six years, so I’ll take the bet on the steak dinner.<br /><br />Looking out to 2030, the crystal ball gets a bit cloudier. A TFR of 1.5 is quite low, even in countries with current low fertility levels where young adults have been long suffering in their desire to move into the kinds of jobs and housing that enabled their parents to comfortably start families. But my gut feeling tells me that the economy will change rapidly enough over the next 16 years to favor the skills that young adults will bring to the labor force (being tech savvy and socially connected); that housing will be available to them; and that relationships and family formation will not lose their appeal to this generation (polling data support this). And, as I mentioned in the blog post, pro-natalist influences of religion and politics are important factors in the U.S. that cannot be discounted. Finally, someone in my demographic should always take this kind of bet 16 years into the future. Thoughts of a fully paid island vacation just might be the thing to keep me around. Game on! <br />George Masnicknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4520343519564700704.post-70519566164590317562013-11-01T08:17:49.851-04:002013-11-01T08:17:49.851-04:00Dr. Masnick' argument understates the probabil...Dr. Masnick' argument understates the probability of a rapid decline in US fertility and the consequences of such a decline.<br /><br />Will you be willing to take the following wager?<br /><br />By 2020 U.S. TFR drops below 1.7. The bet is a good steak dinner<br /><br />By 2030 U.S. TFR drops to 1.5. The bet is a week island vacation.<br /><br />Willing to put your money where your blog is?Joshua Kimhttp://joshmkim.comnoreply@blogger.com